Daytona 500 Picks: America's Greatest Race

Since the early 2000's, I've tuned in for nearly every rendition of the Daytona 500. One thing that I've learned, similar to the Kentucky Derby, is that the favorite almost never wins.

So Kyle Larson, I will be passing on you to finish in the Winner's Circle today. With that said, every few years features someone with little previous experience in the 500 or any real winning success in NASCAR at all coming out on top: Austin Cindric (2021), Michael McDowell (2020), Austin Dillon (2018), Trevor Bayne (2011), etc.

Here are some of my favorite picks for today's race, solely looking at Top 10 finishes. Predicting the winner for this race is truly like picking a needle out of a haystack.

Daytona 500 Starting Lineup:

1. #48 - Alex Bowman

2. #5 - Kyle Larson

3. #22 - Joey Logano

4. #10 - Aric Almirola

5. #20 - Christopher Bell

6. #2 - Austin Cindric

7. #12 - Ryan Blaney

8. #9 - Chase Elliott

9. #17 - Chris Buescher

10. #6 - Brad Keselowski

11. #34 - Michael McDowell

12. #7 - Corey LaJoie

13. #4 - Kevin Harvick

14. #38 - Todd Gilliland

15. #23 - Bubba Wallace

16. #19 - Martin Truex Jr.

17. #36 - Zane Smith

18. #11 - Denny Hamlin

19. #21 - Harrison Burton

20. #41 - Ryan Preece

21. #24 - William Byron

22. #42 - Noah Gragson (R)

23. #1 - Ross Chastain

24. #99 - Daniel Suarez

25. #43 - Erik Jones

26. #45 - Tyler Reddick

27. #3 - Austin Dillon

28. #31 - Justin Haley

29. #16 - A.J. Allmendinger

30. #14 - Chase Briscoe

31. #47 - Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

32. #78 - B.J. McLeod

33. #54 - Ty Gibbs (R)

34. #50 - Conor Daly

35. #51 - Cody Ware

36. #8 - Kyle Busch

37. #77 - Ty Dillon

38. #15 - Riley Herbst

39. #84 - Jimmie Johnson

40. #67 - Travis Pastrana

(R)= Rookie

Top 10:

Denny Hamlin (-125)

Hamlin is arguably the most decorated driver remaining in NASCAR for the foreseeable future. Seen as Michael Jordan's right hand in the sport, the 3-time Daytona 500 winner is looking to repeat. Starting in the middle of the pack at 18th, the beginning order for this race has no real meaning. In his previous 12 Daytona 500 races, he has a ridiculous average finishing position of 9th has finished Top 10 in 67% of said races. Expect Hamlin to be in the mix at the end of the 200 laps.

Chase Elliott (-125)

Seen as the new face of NASCAR, have faith in the series' 2020 champ. He's finished with back-to-back Top 10 finishes in this race and has some of the best resources available to him being a member of Hendrick Motorsports and the son of long-time driver, Bill Elliott. Starting in 8th today, expect him to have plenty of opportunities to take the lead before all hell breaks loose in Stage 3.

Joey Logano (+120)

NASCAR's reigning champ has undergone a bit of a rough stretch at Daytona in recent years, but is more than capable of bouncing back on Sunday. From 2015-2019, Logano reeled off five consecutive Top 10 finishes-- winning the race outright in 2015. He'll start on the inside of Row 2 this afternoon after winning his dual qualifier earlier in the week, so take a chance on this seasoned vet.

Austin Cindric (+170)

Last year's winner of the 500 comes into this year's race in a great starting spot, lined up on the outside of Row 3. Though still a new driver in the Cup Series (or whatever rebrand NASCAR has changed its top series to for 2023), Cindric finished very well in Super Speedway races last year, with 3 top 10 finishes.

Michael McDowell (+210)

Even most fans familiar with the sport don't know McDowell's name, despite that he's been consistently qualifying in races since 2008. However, he's been on a tear as of late in this race, finishing 9th, 5th, 14th, 1st, and 7th in his last 5 appearances. Expect Vegas to sleep on McDowell in this race, simply based on the fact that his odds are nearly the same as rookie Noah Gragson for today's race.