CFB Week 0 Preview: Picks & Predictions

After seven long months of watching college basketball and bad baseball (I say this as a diehard Royals fan), the college football season is finally upon us.

Is this the best slate of games we’ve seen during the expanded week zero slate? Not even close.

Is it the worst week zero slate? Yeah, probably.

But frankly you could give me a game between Lincoln University and Sisters of the Blind at this point and I’d watch every minute of it.

With that, we transition to this upcoming week’s schedule of games at the FBS level. Last year’s week zero was capped off by Northwestern knocking off Nebraska across the pond in Dublin – 2 programs who enter the 2023 season with new coaches leading their programs. This season’s version features #13 ranked Notre Dame and 20.5 point underdog Navy, with both teams looking to bounce back from disappointing reasons relative to program expectations.

Below I’ve outlined four of my favorite bets in Week Zero that you should lock in before the casual fans hit the books this weekend:

Jacksonville State (+1.5) vs. UTEP

Jax State Sports

TV: 4:30pm CT on CBSSN

Jax St

2022 Record: 9-2 (FCS)

Preseason Win Total: 4.5

Returning Starters: 14

TARP*: +2.5

*TARP is a calculated metric that accounts for a team’s transfer additions + returning production

UTEP

2022 Record: 5-7

Preseason Win Total: 5.5

Returning Starters: 10

TARP: -4.5

An early season conference game between UTEP and first year FBS program Jacksonville State, expect this matchup to be ugly to start with. Jax State will likely be working out the kinks getting adjusted to a new pace of play and physicality in a higher division of D1 football. Quarterback Zion Webb returns for the Cocks after a lackluster 10/9 TD-to-INT ratio last season, looking to lead Jax State their 12th straight home opener win.

However, UTEP lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball last season, entering this year with a -4.5 defensive TARP rating after giving up 27.0 PPG last year against a sub-100 strength of schedule. The Miners enter this game having lost their last 8 road openers.

Score Prediction: Jax St 27, UTEP 24

New Mexico State (-6.5 alt line) vs. UMass

NMSU Sports

TV: 6pm CT on ESPN

NMSU

2022 Record: 7-6

Preseason Win Total: 6.5

Returning Starters: 13

TARP: +2

UMass

2022 Record: 1-11

Preseason Win Total: 2.5

Returning Starters: 12

TARP: -3

Honest to god, this might be the worst game ever shown during ESPN’s primetime slot. Beside the point, Jerry Kill completely revamped the culture in Las Cruces last season, leading the Aggies to a bowl win over Bowling Green in year one.

Diego Pavia returns to NMSU as one of the most talented quarterbacks in the C-USA, passing for 13 TD’s and only 6 INT’s last season in limited action. The Aggies have won their last three home games and open as a touchdown favorite in this matchup against the worst team in the nation, according to Athlon Sports’ preseason power rankings.

UMass is looking to rattle off their first road win since 2018 when they beat UConn in the CUM bowl. Yes, you read that right. UMass isn’t going to handle the dry, desert heat well and, honestly, I don’t think they would be a top-20 FCS team headed into this season if they were still playing at that level.

The line currently sits anywhere between -7 and -8, however I’ll buy down a half of a point to -6.5 just to be cautious.

Score Prediction: New Mexico State 31, UMass 14

San Diego State (ML) vs. Ohio

SDSU Athletics

TV: 6pm CT on FS1

SDSU

2022 Record: 7-6

Preseason Win Total: 6.5

Returning Starters: 12

TARP: -3.5

Ohio

2022 Record: 10-4

Preseason Win Total: 7.5

Returning Starters: 14

TARP: -0.5

Despite the effects of Hurricane Hilary, this game will be played without any drastic changes.

Senior QB Jalen Mayden returns for the Aztecs, having thrown for more than 2,400 yards and 12 TDs in 2022. San Diego State boasted a top 20 defense nationally last year, allowing only 21 points per game. Roster turnover on both sides of the ball has been a major concern this offseason, yet the defense looks to remain as a strong point for this team.

Certainly the better QB in this game, Kurtis Rourke returns for Ohio after suffering a season ending knee injury last November. The Canuck led a high powered offensive attack in the MAC in 2022, averaging 31 points per game and throwing for more than 3,200 yards, with an insane 25/4 TD to INT ratio. However, it appears that Rourke may not be fully healthy yet, which presents an interesting dilemma for bettors – trust a proven defense for SDSU or bank on Rourke returning to regular form.

Since beginning play at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego State is 5-2 with losses to only Arizona and Air Force. Last year, they beat Toledo in a very similar matchup 17-14 at home, so expect a similarly scored game on Saturday night.

Score Prediction: San Diego State 24, Ohio 20

#4 USC vs. San Jose State (over 64.5)

USC Athletics

TV: 7pm CT on Pac-12 Network

USC

2022 Record: 11-3

Preseason Win Total: 9.5

Returning Starters: 14

TARP: 4.5

SJSU

2022 Record: 7-5

Preseason Win Total: 5.5

Returning Starters: 13

TARP: -1.5

Heisman winner Caleb Williams is back for USC, along with a plethora of transfers on both sides of the ball. The biggest question for Lincoln Riley and co. entering this year surrounds whether the defense can look even remotely competent, finishing 94th nationally in points allowed per game (29.2) in 2022.

San Jose State is led offensively by Hawaii native Chevan Cordeiro at quarterback, who should be in the mix for Mountain West player of the year this season. Even with a solid defense last year, SJSU hasn’t played against an offense as high powered as USC.

Expect Williams to be out of the game by the start of the 4th quarter. Even then, the total should be well into the 60s, so hope the backups can push to the over.

Score Prediction: USC 49, San Jose State 20