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With the announcement of Colorado's decision to return to the Big 12, we look at the potential implications of this move on the future of the conference, the current state of the Pac-12, and what other moves could be looming soon around college athletics.
Griffin McVeigh/On3
As first reported on Wednesday afternoon by ESPN's Pete Thamel, the University of Colorado is fully intent on returning to the Big 12 after a thirteen year hiatus. The Buffs spent more than sixty years as a member of the Big 8/Big 12, joining the league initially in 1948. However, tensions surrounding the Big 12's firm stance against creating a conference TV network led to the school's exodus in 2010 for the Pac-12.
Ironically enough, this is the exact reason for their return to the Big 12, amidst the Pac-12's inability to close on a new grant of rights deal, which has loomed amongst public uncertainty for more than a year now.
As reported by Action Network's Brett McMurphy, barring anything unforeseen, Colorado will join the Big 12 as a full rights member in 2024, earning roughly $31 million annually from both ESPN and FOX.
The Colorado Board of Regents is scheduled to meet Thursday afternoon at 3pm MT to finalize this move.
Further Big 12 Expansion
My immediate response upon hearing this news of Colorado returning home this afternoon immediately shifted to other potential Big 12 suitors. For some time, it has been rumored that the "4 corner schools" (Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah) have been in contact with the Big 12 and commissioner Brett Yormark. With the first domino having already fallen, additional pieces are likely to tumble as well. When this might happen is the real uncertainty of course, but I can't imagine the Big 12 will be content staying at 13 members.
Here are the schools perceived as most likely to follow suit:
Arizona:
Orlando Ramirez/USA Today
Arizona has already made it publicly known that they feel no sense of responsibility to stay in the same conference as their in-state rival. Just months ago, it was rumored that Colorado and Arizona could be a package deal to leave the Pac-12, however the news on this front has not been circulated throughout realignment spheres as of late. The addition of the Phoenix media market, a top 15 all-time basketball program, and a somewhat respectable football program makes the Wildcats a viable option to join the conference.
UConn:
Ian Bethune/The UConn Blog
Big 12 commissioner, Brett Yormark, has been one of the biggest advocators for the conference to expand to the northeast. Having just secured one of the largest TV markets on the west coast in Denver, the New York market is one that is relatively untapped at the moment, with Rutgers serving as the only real Power 5 program in the region. Even then, UConn holds a much more significant tie on the city--and I'm not sure it's even relatively close.
Obviously, this would be a huge addition from a basketball perspective. Adding the reigning national champs, paired with Kansas (2022 national champ), Baylor (2021 national champ), and Texas Tech (2019 national runner-up), would make the Big 12 the formidable king of college hoops. The only real threat to this idea coming to fruition lies upon the shoulders of UConn's lackluster football program. Despite the hiring of Jim "Him" Mora prior to the start of the 2022 season, the Huskies remain as a sub-100 nationally ranked program--even on the heels of a 6-7 season and Myrtle Beach Bowl appearance.
Remaining Pac-12 schools:
Further rumors have swirled this afternoon about an another Pac-12 school in talks with the Big 12 about a possible conference shift. No official details have been released in regards to which school this may be, outside of a tweet by FOX's Geoff Schwartz.
Whether this might be Oregon, Washington, or another west coast school remains to be seen for the time being. Only time will tell.
Replacement Options for Colorado (Pac-12)
The only sensible move at this point for the Pac-12 is to add a Group of 5 program. With no established media deal, the attraction to a dying conference is relatively non-existent for nearly everyone, outside of a handful of smaller programs.
San Diego State:
Heartland College Sports
San Diego State made it well-known less than a month ago that they're looking to move up in conference stature, as they asked for a formal release from the Mountain West, despite no official invitation from the Big 12 or Pac-12. The Aztecs are desperate to improve their national athletic caché, and a jump to a power conference would certainly help. Also, with UCLA and USC darting for the Big Ten in 2024, the Pac-12 is currently left with no media presence in SoCal--further emphasizing the need to add a program from this region of the country.
SMU:
Timothy Flores/USA Today
One of the key reasons for Colorado leaving the Pac-12 resulted from a lack of football recruiting grounds on the west coast, with coach Deion Sanders emphasizing the need to be able to play consistently in the state of Texas. Left now in relative disarray, taking Coach Prime's advice here and expanding to the Lone Star state might not be the worst idea. SMU had been mentioned along with SDSU as a likely expansion candidate during the early spring, though nothing officially came to light.
Although not seen as a beloved program to most in Texas, adding a consistent football winner and securing a portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth television market is a must, assuming the Pac-12 decides against adding San Diego State.
Do I have any real confidence that the Pac-12 will make the smart decision and secure one of these two programs? Absolutely not, as commissioner George Kliavkoff's tenure has been largely uneventful so far.
In layman's terms, the Big 12 is now on solid grounds to remain as a power conference in college football, despite the loss of both Oklahoma and Texas--while the Pac-12 appears to be a sinking ship, held together only until the Big Ten eventually invites Washington and Oregon to join the conference.
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